Part 1 of Zygmunt Bauman Interview
http://essayist.in/2013/04/de-familiarize-and-familiarize/2/
"And that all suggestions of scientists and experts possessing such (future-prediction) powers thanks to their professional training are in my view fraudulent!"
Although I read the second part first (Escaping Inside Utopia) and then started reading this first part, second, I couldn't move past this sentence without reacting and commenting.
I can predict right now, based on available data and prediction modeling based on research methodology of which statistics is a tool, that as I write this, it is dark and later it will be bright and the sun will rise from the East. I claim to be neither a scientist nor an expert, but I challenge ZB to call me fraudulent within the next 24hr unless he is currently living in the Antarctic, in which case the sun will only come up late September. An other prediction of the future.
The problem with sociology is that there will always be too many variables with missing data, variables not yet included in the model, not even yet defined, measuring instruments that are unreliable, and the "system" too sensitive to define as closed. Earthquake and hurricane prediction is much easier but nowhere as easy as solar system astronomy.
Although we may be students we will challenge anyone to a bet if she/he can predict what we will or will not do next. We will prove him/her wrong ALL the time and win EVERY bet.
This is why we have no teachers in the school, they run away broke!
http://socialphysicsinstitute.blogspot.gr/
http://essayist.in/2013/04/de-familiarize-and-familiarize/2/
"And that all suggestions of scientists and experts possessing such (future-prediction) powers thanks to their professional training are in my view fraudulent!"
Although I read the second part first (Escaping Inside Utopia) and then started reading this first part, second, I couldn't move past this sentence without reacting and commenting.
I can predict right now, based on available data and prediction modeling based on research methodology of which statistics is a tool, that as I write this, it is dark and later it will be bright and the sun will rise from the East. I claim to be neither a scientist nor an expert, but I challenge ZB to call me fraudulent within the next 24hr unless he is currently living in the Antarctic, in which case the sun will only come up late September. An other prediction of the future.
The problem with sociology is that there will always be too many variables with missing data, variables not yet included in the model, not even yet defined, measuring instruments that are unreliable, and the "system" too sensitive to define as closed. Earthquake and hurricane prediction is much easier but nowhere as easy as solar system astronomy.
Although we may be students we will challenge anyone to a bet if she/he can predict what we will or will not do next. We will prove him/her wrong ALL the time and win EVERY bet.
This is why we have no teachers in the school, they run away broke!
http://socialphysicsinstitute.blogspot.gr/
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